It’s been a long time away from betting. Super Rugby was taking shape, and Liverpool were headed steadily for the title. Sport was accessible and plenty, until it was not. But, slowly, things have started to return (albeit in a very different way to the pre Covid-19 world), and so to has sports betting.
I decided to to stay away from the UFC 249 last weekend, in what would mark the first return of high level, quality live sport. The previews were brilliant, as seems to be the trend with the UFC, and after a bit of reading it was tempting to wager some cash. But in all honesty, I only started my reading the Friday before the fights, and just felt I hadn’t given it enough attention throughout the week to warrant putting money down on any of the events. The bet I was thinking of placing on Justin Gaethje to beat Tony Ferguson would have paid back well had I actually placed it, but I was happy to be just a fan on the weekend that live sport returned.
I did however, feel more prepared for the much awaited Bundesliga return which kicked off in empty stadiums across Germany this past weekend (16th May). When Super Rugby started, MoneyMan cautioned against placing too many bets early on as there is not much of a form guide to follow in the early stages. I felt that although Bundesliga was kicking off at match day 26, the dynamics of an empty stadium and over two months away from the game, lent the returning matches similar unpredictability to the early stages of any sporting tournament. This weekend was to be one for watching and assessing…BUT, some lengthy reading on Augsburg vs Wolfsburg outlined over 2.5 goals and both teams to score as too tempting a bet to turn down. I constructed the bet using Sportingbet’s “build a bet” function and ended up with 2.10 odds that saw R50 return R105 as Wolfsburg were 2-1 winners.
As mentioned in a previous column during lockdown, MoneyMan had advised punters to put their betting funds into an investment account to gain some interest while sports remained unplayed. I withdrew all but R500 from each of my four accounts and decided that although some sports are beginning to return, this is the figure I’ll be wagering with for now. MoneyMan also detailed his process of classing bets, at the beginning of lockdown, as a method to bet more strategically and responsibly. You can read more here for his exact methodology, but I’ve decided to apply it in the form of percentage to the amounts I currently have in my account. My Class A bet stands at 30% of my total, my Class B at 20% and Class C at 10%. While I was confident that the bet would pay off, there was obviously the huge underlying dynamic in terms of the context in which football was returning, which had the ability to offset any well thought out prediction. Hence, I wagered a safer Class C.
1/1 on my return, and as is always outlined by MoneyMan, it’s not the monetary value of your bet, but the value of the process that went into placing it. The up side of the little sport on offer is that one can really channel one’s energy into specifics, and I’m looking forward to a week of Bundesliga reading ahead of next week’s clashes.